What future for our industry?

What does the future hold for our industry?

On the front page of the Financial Times yesterday was an article about the incredible decline in construction output during 2011. Overall construction workload fell by a staggering 39%. This is the most significant fall for the past 35 years. There were turnover statistics from several of the major construction companies, including Kier and Balfour Beatty, which indicated the considerable reduction in their construction turnover in the period.

The quarterly GEP figures issued for Quarter 1 suggested that construction output was down by nearly 5% in the period. There are no regionally adjusted figures so I would anticipate that the decline in the regions is far greater as the overall figure will be bettered by investment in the South East.

This catastrophic level of change in any industry will inevitably reshape the future considerably. For the construction industry, clearly we will never go back to the past and the type of industry it was over the past 15 years will not be seen again. We are in a period of flux at present where there is little workload or revenue, but at the same time there are improvements in technology which could reshape how we design, deliver and operate buildings for the future.

All businesses are keen to set out a vision of sustainability which looks to provide steady employment and profit for those involved in the businesses, something which is clearly under considerable threat in the construction industry at present.

As I look into the future I believe it is impossible to predict where we will be in 2 or 3 years time. Long term investments are a considerable gamble with the future being so unpredictable. Many firms are shrinking their regional presences and looking to develop opportunities in the South, which will obviously drain talent from the regions. Organisations are consolidating and changing on a regular basis. International markets continue to be the lifeline of most organisations that are able to stay afloat.

This generation has never seen such a dramatic downturn, and construction leaders are drawing on much of their experience to maintain business sustainability. While it may be difficult to predict where any of us will be beyond the next 12 months, all we can hope is that when we do see a light at the end of the tunnel, the future will be different, but secure, as well as exciting and challenging. Hopefully we can all learn lessons from this period and ultimately ensure we all have a better future.

The Future of Architecture

Will onsite be replaced by offsite manufacture in the future?

The recent publication by Building Futures about the future of architecture is an excellent insight into the challenges facing the industry. The report paints what I believe to be an incredibly accurate and perceptive view of our future.

The premise of the document is that there may be no architecture profession by 2025, which is an interesting argument and one I feel is close to what will be the reality of the situation.

Ultimately, I believe that the RIBA will end up representing two very different types of organisation.

At one end of the spectrum, the RIBA will represent the small general practitioners which operate in local markets on one-off niche projects. At the other end of the spectrum they will represent architects internationally – large international practices which deliver high profile complex schemes around the world.

Those medium-sized architects face the future of a diminishing marketplace. Previously, these practices have been involved in large Government programmes such as BSF or P21+. They have also delivered mixed use commercial schemes for developers across the UK.

In reality, it is no longer an option for these practices to rely on the Government for work, as the marketplace and requirement for these schemes is disappearing fast. Such organisations need an ongoing growth and revenue to provide investment in training and development and to cover large overheads.

The report hints at what these practices need to do to survive. They will need to reposition themselves and do something different in the marketplace.

Their future lies in capitalising in the need for a coordinating role. The use of BIM in construction projects supports the need for a lead designer or coordinator. There is an opportunity to embrace this role however I am sure many design managers within construction businesses will attempt to take on this role for themselves.

The role of consultant engineer may also diminish as both M&E and structural sub contractors take on more and more of the technical requirement.

The medium sized practice could also look to develop products on behalf of the industry. There is an opportunity to use the design skills which architects have to produce buildings which are manufactured rather than constructed. These products can then be sold to the large contactors or direct clients. If the designers can be clever enough they could create products which depend less on constructors and more on assembly, changing the industry through an investment in innovation. Large contractors who have strong balance sheets tend not to invest in research and development and are happy to continue to deliver projects how they have always been delivered.

The final area of opportunity for these mid-range practices is on international work. Over the past 10 years many of these practices have built up a great amount of experience in designing hospitals and schools. These skills should not be wasted and can easily be exported to other parts of the world. It will mean competing on a global stage, but with the right targeted marketing there may be an opportunity to fill the gap left by the reduced spending in the UK.

There is no doubt that the prognosis for architectural practice as we know it today is not good. By 2025, the profession will be very different and many of the current medium sized practices will not exist in their current form. A number of new businesses will have been formed by the more entrepreneurial and innovative business leaders, whilst many of the others will have been absorbed by larger construction companies who have identified the need for the coordination skills which are inherent in the traditional architect.

BIM gets rolling

Over the past six weeks the term BIM (Building Information Modelling) has been used more than ever. At _space group, we have been tracking this technology for over 10 years and were converted a long time ago. The construction industry has now started to realise that there may be something in this new technology. The main driver for this change has been the adoption of the approach from client bodies. This includes the Government themselves, following several speeches from Paul Morell, the Government’s construction advisor, who is supporting BIM and confirming that it is the way all public buildings will be procured in the future. Other clients, such as Manchester City Council, have also stated that all future projects will be delivered using BIM.

Once large scale client bodies have made this jump, the rest of the industry will start to wake up to the need to use it, and hopefully, its potential.

Over recent weeks I have been involved in countless discussions, presentations and workshops with construction organisations who want to understand what BIM is all about. My starting point is always the same. BIM is not the answer to everything and there are some pieces of intelligent software available which do assist the process but there is still a need for experience and construction knowledge. The second point I make is that BIM is not only about training a team how to use sophisticated software but, I believe, is a complete cultural change within any organisation. Without decisions being made at the highest level of all businesses, BIM will not work. Procurement processes and contracts all need to be reviewed and re-aligned to this new integrated process.

We are only really at the start of our journey in the UK regarding BIM as several constructors start to realise the potential and need for this new approach. The architectural industry is still way off the pace and continues to fight against the technology. I believe much of this is fear and also arrogance in that many architectural businesses focus very much on the art rather than marketing needs.

The involvement by constructors has been really encouraging, however the understanding at board level still is a long way from delivery on site. Over the next few years we will see some major successes and failures utilising this approach however, I am absolutely convinced that BIM will be universally adopted across the industry and will deliver projects faster, cheaper and better.